TRX Price Prediction: Navigating Bearish Pressure and Network Growth

#TRX

• TRX trading below 20-day MA at $0.2964 with bearish technical signals
• Mixed news sentiment combining regulatory concerns and strong network growth
• Potential 5-7% upside to $0.311 resistance with $0.291 as key support

TRX Price Prediction

TRX Technical Analysis

According to BTCC financial analyst Olivia, TRX is currently trading at $0.2964, below its 20-day moving average of $0.3111, indicating short-term bearish pressure. The MACD shows a slight negative divergence at -0.000277, suggesting weakening momentum. However, the price remains above the Bollinger Band lower limit of $0.2906, providing potential support. The technical setup suggests consolidation with a possible retest of the moving average resistance.

Market Sentiment Analysis

BTCC financial analyst Olivia notes that recent news presents a mixed picture for TRX. Negative sentiment stems from regulatory concerns highlighted by the Bangkok crypto Ponzi scheme arrest and TRON's participation in Europol's crime conference. However, fundamental strength is evident from TRON's network growth outpacing price performance. These factors align with the technical analysis showing short-term pressure but underlying network strength.

Factors Influencing TRX's Price

Chinese National Arrested in Bangkok Over $14M Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Thai authorities have apprehended Liang Ai-Bing, a Chinese national accused of orchestrating a $14 million cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme through the defunct platform FINTOCH. The operation, which targeted nearly 100 victims in China, promised unrealistic daily returns of 1% and falsely claimed backing from Morgan Stanley.

On-chain analyst ZachXBT identified the scam as 2023's largest DeFi exit fraud, tracing $31.6 million in USDT across Tron and Ethereum networks. The arrest followed a joint operation between Thai and Chinese police, culminating in a raid on Liang's upscale Bangkok residence.

The FINTOCH platform operated from December 2022 to May 2023, employing an actor as a fake CEO before executing its exit scam. Liang had been evading Chinese law enforcement while living alone in a property rented for approximately $4,645 per month.

Tron (TRX) Struggles Below $0.31 Amid Bearish Pressure

Tron (TRX) faces persistent resistance at $0.31 as bearish momentum dominates, with the altcoin trading below its 200-day Simple Moving Average. Current price action reflects a 0.69% decline to $0.2966, despite an 18.8% surge in trading volume to $812.36 million—suggesting active speculation during the downturn.

Technical indicators paint a cautious picture: RSI nears oversold territory while MACD remains negative, signaling weakening momentum. The 7.28% weekly drop underscores sustained selling pressure, though some analysts note TRX's relative resilience compared to broader market declines.

Market observers highlight the breach of previous wick lows as a concerning technical development. The convergence of increased volume with price stagnation hints at potential accumulation, setting the stage for a possible short-term reversal if bulls can reclaim the SMA threshold.

TRON Network Growth Outpaces TRX Price Performance

TRON's user base surged in October 2025, adding 6.23 million new addresses—a testament to its growing ecosystem of dApps and low-fee transactions. Yet TRX remains stubbornly below $0.32, revealing the crypto market's perennial disconnect between adoption and valuation.

The network's technical advantages—high throughput and developer-friendly infrastructure—continue attracting builders. But macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory uncertainty appear to outweigh on-chain metrics for traders, keeping TRX in consolidation despite bullish fundamentals.

TRON DAO Engages in Europol’s Crypto Crime Conference

TRON DAO, the decentralized autonomous organization advancing blockchain adoption, participated in Europol’s 9th Global Conference on Criminal Finances and Cryptoassets. Held at the UNODC headquarters in Vienna, the event convened industry leaders to address illicit activities in digital assets, including sanctions evasion and money laundering.

John Hurston, TRON DAO’s U.S. General Counsel, joined a panel on public-private collaboration in cryptoasset seizure. The discussion highlighted the T3 Financial Crime Unit, a joint effort by TRON, Tether, and TRM Labs to combat blockchain-related crime. Europol’s Alejandro Pérez moderated the session, which included insights from Tether’s Leonardo Real and TRM Labs’ Dr. Bruno Requião da Cunha.

How High Will TRX Price Go?

According to BTCC financial analyst Olivia, TRX faces near-term resistance around the $0.311 level, corresponding to the 20-day moving average. The current technical setup suggests potential for a 5-7% upside to test this resistance zone if market sentiment improves. Key resistance levels to watch are:

The convergence of regulatory concerns and strong network fundamentals creates a balanced outlook, with price movement likely dependent on broader market conditions and regulatory developments.